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A Note on Updating Forecasts When New Information Arrives between Two Periods [Dataset]
hdl:1902.1/13845
Version: 1 – Released: Wed Nov 25 08:37:24 EST 2009
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Data Citation Details
Study Global IDhdl:1902.1/13845
AuthorsPu Chen (University of Melbourne)
Production Date2009
Software MSBVAR for R
DistributorEconomics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal Logo
Distributor ContactKorinna Werner-Schwarz (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), korinna.werner-schwarz@economics-ejournal.org
Distribution Date2009
Deposit DateNovember 03, 2009
Provenance
Abstract and Scope
Abstract

In this note the author discusses the problem of updating forecasts in a time-discrete forecasting model when information arrives between the current period and the next period. To use the information that arrives between two periods, he assumes that the process between two periods can be approximated by a linear interpolation of the time-discrete forecasting model. Based on this assumption the author drives the optimal updating rule for the forecast of the next period when new information arrives between the current period and the next period. He demonstrates by theoretical arguments and empirical examples that this updating rule is simple, intuitively appealing, defendable and useful.

Abstract Date2009
KeywordsForecast
Topic ClassificationC32 (JEL)
Related PublicationsPu Chen (2009). A Note on Updating Forecasts When New Information Arrives between Two Periods. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2009-22. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2009-22
Time Period Covered1974 - 2009
Country/NationAustralia
Kind of Dataaggregate data
Data Collection / Methodology
Time MethodTime series
Frequencymonthly
Data Availability
Number of Files 2
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"A Note on Updating Forecasts When New Information Arrives between Two Periods [Dataset]", hdl:1902.1/13845